UK operators predict 500,000+ Apple iPhone sales

Two of the United Kingdom’s mobile operators have spoken to me in the last week on the subject of the Apple iPhone launch in the United Kingdom.

One of them estimates 500,000 iPhone sales within 6 months. The other estimates (and this is a potential shocker) that, worst case, they will lose 500,000 customers to o2.

Since January, I’ve been waiting to see how the United Kingdom audience react to the device. We’re far, far, FAR more advanced mobile consumers than our North American brothers who, let’s face it, are generally dead impressed by a phone that can do little more than send a text message.

I remember remarking, half heartedly, that Apple should have launched in the UK first. Why? Well, I couldn’t really back that up really. It was pure opinion. But what I do know is that your average mobile consumer here in the UK *WANTS* an iPhone. Your average American wants to avoid being screwed by their mobile operator and, if at all possible, get a decent handset. I’m generalising massively, but run with me.

The appetite in the US, I felt, was heavily fueled by Apple geeks. And I mean geeks. Serious geeks. There’s a lot of them in America, obviously, because Apple’s very popular in America. If Apple introduced a watch, they’d sell a million of them in the first week to their loyal, loyal fans, whether the watch was any good or not. Stick an Apple badge on it and they (me too) are typically suckers.

Swap to the United Kingdom and all of a sudden, you’re in a massively different marketplace. Huge amounts of the population are sporting up to date devices. Mobile fashion is EXTREMELY important. Even my mother was sufficiently annoyed with her bog standard Nokia last year to demand a ‘flippy-openy-one-that-is-silverish’ (the RAZR).

Most girls won’t be seen dead with a shit handset. In fact, it’s that bad I’ve seen many-a-girl check her text messages on her handset whilst it’s in her handbag — just so she doesn’t have to bring it out and be seen with it.

Or, they’ll bring it out and explain, apologetically, that ‘it’s my old one, I flushed my [insert sexy brand name device] down the toilet yesterday’ or ‘I was mugged, my new [insert sexy device] arrives tomorrow.’

Indeed, our operators are that attuned to the UK’s mobile handset fashions that they’ve turned their once drab functional shops into palaces of design — and made sure they’ve outlets on every High Street. So, yes, we’re up for new and fancy, fashionable devices. For a while now, we’ve been used to Nokias, Sony Ericssons, Samsungs, LGs… distinctive handsets arrive on the marketplace and cause a stir. The 3UK Sony Ericsson K770i, for example, is their top selling handset ever since it was launched a few weeks ago. There was massive demand for the 5 megapixel Nokia N95. The distinctive LG Shine flew off the shelves. Samsung’s latest handsets continue to turn heads.

And now the iPhone arrives into a crowded marketplace and will, at least for a good few months, be the number-one device in terms of aspiration and most probably in terms of sales.

Over the weeks I’ve talked to lots of people who’ve been doubting the device appeal to the masses. To each of them, I stopped the conversation, stayed silent and pointed to my iPhone as I pinched and flicked through my photos. And when each person inevitably said ‘But, it…’ I then went silent again and demonstrated the iPod capabilities, in particular, the album flicking function. Then I showed the video. Then I showed the text messaging. Yes the keyboard might be a bit of an arse to get used to. But that’s nothing. NOTHING compared with the fancy iPhone features. Folk are going to love it. The mass market will eat it up.

‘But it’s £269 pounds,’ many said.

‘So what?’ I said. Watch the queues. 269 is nothing. NOTHING. Nothing in the context of an (apparently) quality Apple device that comes with BUCKETLOADS of cachet for the ordinary person on the street. All over the country, Jumpin’ Jacks nightclubs will be teeming with posers dressed in designer Armani jeans with iPhone sticking out the back pocket. TGI Fridays will be rocking to the beat of iPhone ringtones and chirrups. One poser in every group of folk will splash out the dosh for a device and a contract with o2. They know that they will INSTANTLY be the source of envy and attention for a long, long time. Girls will simply adore the way it works. Many a geek will roll eyes. But it looks good. It functions nicely. It’s Apple and it’s got crate-loads of show off potential. It’s a winner and the United Kingdom is going to go 100% iPhone mad. That’s more or less a given.

What’s going to be fascinating to watch is the next trick. What next? After 6 months of iPhone sales, what happens? How will demand for top-of-the-range Sony Ericssons and Samsungs fare?

I was reading in various papers today about comparable iPhone devices. One paper reckoned that HTC’s latest Touch is a good substitute. Or the Sony Ericsson Walkman handests. Or even a top notch 5 megapixel Samsung. Or the LG Viewty. No. None of them are remotely, REMOTELY anywhere near the same or comparable to the iPhone. Not on your nelly. Not as far as the UK public is concerned.

Stick a top notch Samsung into the hands of Tracy from Southend or Linda from York and she’ll still be SEETHING with envy when her friend brings out her iPhone. Such is the potential and power of this Apple handset — in this marketplace — at this particular time.

In 6 months, I wonder.

Will it wear off? Will the half a million iPhone customers in the country begin to get annoyed with the smooth animations that after a while get a bit boring (“Just show me the sodding Phone screen when I click it please, stop wasting a second or two animating”)? Will the iPhone begin to truly convert the masses to data, to web browsing on the move, to Google Maps on your mobile? I wonder, I wonder.

I will be waiting with baited breath. Waiting, watching and observing. It’s going to very, very exciting to witness the changes in the mobile industry.

For now though, I’m going to sit back and watch the news reports from around the country. The nutters are already queuing for their iPhones at the Apple Store in Regent Street. It’s chucking it down with rain and blowing a gale. But you know, these folk want to be first to get in the door and buy their iPhone when they go on sale at 6.02pm tomorrow.

Did you get that, by the way? 6-dot-oh-two-pm. ‘o2’. Heh. Nice. They could have done it at midnight then the devices could have gone on sale at ‘0:02’.

I won’t be focusing on the Apple stores though. They’re going to be popular, period. It’s the Carphone Warehouses I will be watching. Almost 800 stores across the UK will be selling them from tomorrow (along with, obviously, o2’s own stores.).

Expect pictures and commentary from Carphone Warehouses tomorrow here on SMS Text News.