What is it about Aussies and the need for speed? A second Australian mobile operator has come out and promised a 42Mbps in the next couple of years. Hot on the heels of incumbent Telstra, Optus has now promised a super speedy mobile network by the middle of 2010.

However, neither Telstra nor Optus has discussed what new applications, if any, will debut on the super-fast network. Still, after all the slow build up in 3G speeds in Europe, it’s good to see a couple of operators not shy about promising tens of megabits.

Currently, Australia is planning a fixed fibre-to-the-node network that will get 12Mbps to 98 percent of the population in the next five years. Meanwhile, Optus is promising to get 42Mbps (admittedly maximum peak downlink) to the same coverage level in less time. This could make Australia one of the few countries where mobile network are faster than fixed in real terms. Wow.

Suddenly the iPhone gets a bit of international momentum in the form of a Vodafone nod of the head. Fascinating. Long have they been rumoured to be interested in Apple’s iPhone. They weren’t keen enough to bring it to the UK but today it’s confirmed from their press office that some of their international territories are now very Apple friendly. Check out this statement:

Vodafone today announced it has signed an agreement with Apple to sell the iPhone in ten of its markets around the globe. Later this year, Vodafone customers in Australia, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Italy, India, Portugal, New Zealand, South Africa and Turkey will be able to purchase the iPhone for use on the Vodafone network.

So if you live in any of those countries and you were interested in getting an official Apple iPhone, then standby!

From tomorrow, the 8GB iPhone is now available on o2, via Carphone Warehouse, for £169 pounds — on a 600 minute, 500 text, unlimited data £35/month price plan (18 months, I imagine).

Good news!

The even better news is that anyone who purchased an iPhone from Carphone Warehouse within the last 30 days will, under the company’s Ultimate Price Promise scheme, receive £100 worth of vouchers automatically. Cool!

From the Carphone release:

Launched 10 years ago and already responsible for customers receiving millions of pounds, the Ultimate Price Promise means The Carphone Warehouse will automatically give vouchers to the value of £100 to anyone who has purchased an iPhone from the store in the last 30 days.

“The iPhone has changed the landscape and we’re delighted that we can lower its price and broaden its appeal,” says Andrew Harrison, UK CEO, The Carphone Warehouse. “Of course, significant price reductions can make people who have recently purchased feel like they missed out, so with our Ultimate Price Promise customers will get an unexpected bonus.”

Interesting, interesting.

CNET has the gossip.

A 3G iPhone? Well. It’ll certainly be a bit faster when browsing in the middle of a field. Just how good will the experience be? 10% faster? 100% faster? I wonder.

Link: Apple attempts blackmail with its Irish Staff

I have just had three phone calls from Apple staff in Hollyhill today panicking about a note they received this morning the contents of which are below.

If you’ve been following Pat’s commentary over the past weeks, you’ll know he’s supremely, SUPREMELY unimpressed with Apple and iPhone launch in Ireland (”Paddy Tax”). He’s been contacted by some Apple store staff today worrying about a rather direct note received from the top chaps. Have a read for more.

Sonya over at the Orange County Register has been busy documenting a list of applications being developed for both Android and iPhone.

If you’re at all interested in this area, it’d be worth keeping an eye on the list. Here’s the Android List and the iPhone List.

Nice one Sonya!

My betrothed’s Apple MacBook Pro was on screensaver mode a lot of Friday. Every time I glanced across the apartment, I kept on catching the screensaver’s default Apple News RSS feed.

And every sodding minute, this Apple fanboy paragraph was popping up — written by David Pogue, NY Times:

I can’t tell you how huge this is going to be. There will be thousands of iPhone programs, covering every possible interest. The iPhone will be valuable for far more than simple communications tasks; it will be the first widespread pocket desktop computer. You’re witnessing the birth of a third major computer platform: Windows, Mac OS X, iPhone.

Blah blah blah. He’s talking about the iPhone SDK.

Seeing this pop up every minute or so began to slowly drive me nuts. I made a mental note to document that here.

The Apple iPhone is, you see, screwed, in it’s current incarnation and industry configuration.

There was a six month window last year, during which many of the world’s mobile industry did a collective panic-and-hold-breath job. I spoke far and wide to ascertain this viewpoint. Operators, handset manufacturers, developers. People of position, wealth, title, influence and knowledge. Every single one of them was dusting off their business plans and preparing to surrender to Steve Jobs and the talented team at Apple.

Every single one of these people had ordered countless analyst reports and confidential briefings — along the lines of ’so, just how many iPods were sold in the last 2 years? Ok. So.. let’s just say 5% switch to an iPhone in the next year, yeah, conservatively?’

And mild panic, or in many cases, the real frothy-mouth panic ensued.

What we thought was going to happen, basically, was none other than total iPhone domination. We — and me, having formed my opinions through the consultation of the great and the good of mobile — reckoned that Apple was about to come storming on to the European marketplace (we viewed America as a bit of a RAZR-esque enigma), and gobble up anywhere near 10, 20 or maybe 30% of the new handset market almost overnight.

Serious people wearing serious suits were preparing for this.

I was filled with excitement. How would your average normob react to using an iPhone? Data usage would go through the roof. All of a sudden, we’d enter a new era of mobile internet ‘devices’ as apposed to phones. Your basic N95, for example, is *still* a phone… with a browser bolted on (and a shitty slow one at that). It can’t be easily updated, it’s music player is pretty limited… yet it was one of the best offerings of the industry. Totally different from an iPhone… the iPhone was a game-changer. I was stoked to see just what would happen when the great unwashed got hold of their iPhones.

Carphone Warehouse, after obtaining the rights to distribute the device, were mega prepared. One SMS Text News reader popped into the Winchester branch of the chain on UK launch day and noted 18 staff on hand, ready to deal with the demand… and sadly only 3 customers at any one time during a 30 minute peak period.

Anecdotal, yes. But the stories began to break.

The huge demand was definitely there.

‘Demand ain’t no good without action’, as the capitalist God is wont to point out. Nobody bought them.

I canvassed far and wide again — this time with Normobs.

Every normob I spoke to had heard of the iPhone. Oh yes. Big time. Apple did a brilliant job there.

Not one of them planned to buy the device. Why? Cost.

Shit.

I quickly readjusted my Apple-reality-sensor.

Of course!

Of course! They never had any intention of dominating the planet. Gahhh.

Here we were, thinking the iPhone was the next big thing, only to quickly recognise that — DUH — of course — it was being operated on closed-loop-thinking. End-to-end control. Apple wanted to control the whole experience… the WHOLE experience… right down to the visual voicemail network tie in. Which requires customised network programming by a dedicated and ‘official’ mobile operator. AT&T in the States, o2 in the UK.

And Apple did a revenue sharing deal. Nice. It gets a slice of the price plan. Great concept.

It worked — it’s working — lots of people have bought an iPhone and are loving it.

Sadly, the great unwashed, the vast majority, well… they couldn’t give a toss.

That’s the killer. The nail in the coffin for iPhone dominance.

The great unwashed don’t care.

They admire from afar, much like they admire a Porsche Boxster. You know, it’s a high performance car. Looks sexy. It’s affordable for many, because you can get one for 400 quid a month… and call yourself a Porsche driver. You *could* spend your money on it. There’s a ton of people in the UK, for example, who, theoretically, if they tightened belts and redirected spending, could definitely drive a Porsche.. Boxster. Not the main Porsche range, but definitely a Boxster.

This great unwashed, similarly, looked at the iPhone.

Go into an Apple Store at the weekend and WATCH the great unwashed — girls and boys, men and women, NON GEEKS, watch them crowding the Apple Store as they admire the device. Hold it, play with it, weigh it in their hands.

And watch as they then put it back down a few minutes later and walk off.

Could afford it. THEORETICALLY could.

But 300 smackers up front? And how much per month? For 18 months? ‘Nah. I get better minutes on [insert operator name],’ you can almost hear them mutter.

Arse.

It’s the same around the planet.

I was particularly taken with China Mobile’s ‘er, no thanks, we’ve already got 400,000 unlocked iPhones operating on our network,’ stance upon breaking exclusive negotiations with Apple.

The iPhone will sell, there will be some phenomenal applications released for it.

Alas, it ain’t-going-nowhere, ’til the Fat Lady sings (or, er, Steve Jobs) makes the device $99 or £99 pounds unlocked on any network.

Unfortunately, I suspect that momentum has been lost. I don’t think there’s going to be such an opportunity for Apple again. Why, oh why, did they play for a bit-percentage of the global industry when they could have seriously challenged for domination?

The other players got the hint, very quickly. The manufacturers, the operators — they got the wake up call quickly and the industry is transforming, perhaps unnecessarily now, to respond to the iPhone.

The sad fact is, at the current price points, it doesn’t matter if the iPhone does the dishes, the great unwashed don’t care. Won’t care.

They’re far too looked-after by their existing service providers, recently awoken from their slumber. They love the device, they’d use one if you put it in their hands… but unlike the world’s iPod purchasers, they’re not prepared to pay a premium for an iPhone.

Even if you made the iPhone cheaper and unlocked it…… I wonder, I seriously wonder if many would change.

The tech elite and the geeky few will, I’m sure, always have an iPhone.

But Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, LG… they can all breathe a sigh of relief. They have done, in actual fact. They’re over the iPhone. Working hard to improve their UIs, they’ll still continue to shift bucketloads — MILLIONS — while the iPhone will only ever shift a few.

As for countering Blackberry?

Save me.

Tosh.

Tosh, tosh, tosh. Blackberry can sit back and rest for a lonnnnnnnnnnnnng time. That’s another diatribe for another day though.

Apple iPhone. World domination? Er, no. Woe is me. I’d love to see a different future, though.

You never know, perhaps Jobs will pull one out of the hat…

I have been rather ill.

It is, I think, a degree of penance for the quiet sniggering I did when the UK was beset with an annoying strain of vomiting flu whilst I was sitting in sunny San Francisco.

Not a full 24 hours after I returned to these windy shores and I was struck down. Energy departed my body quicker than a fully charged mobile battery that’s seen better days. Quickly, walking about became an arse and I became uber lethargic. Headaches. The whole shebang minus vomiting.

Sharing a bed with my other half, an unbelievably light sleeper, I spent most of the first night awake, staring into space, unable to sleep and thus using up brain compute cycles thinking about my Phones4U experience and coming up with all sorts of things that I must post, here.

In order to record my semi coherent thoughts, I reached for the nearest handset — the iPhone. A masterly choice, I thought, after I tapped away on it, recognising what an excellent handset it would be if you were in a horror film.

You know the kind I mean: The killer, brandishing a huge bloodied knife and a murderous ego, is slowly pacing the room. Our heroine is crouched behind some sofa or something, resplendent in ruined makeup that serves to make her look that bit more wanton — think: managed attractiveness. Her handset is out and, well, she can’t afford to make a sound while she texts for help. Not one sound. This is usually where a I think ‘throw a stone or something wayyyyy over that way’ so that the killer will run through to the next room, but it usually never happens. Often the heroine, doing a brilliant job of staying quiet, then notices her best friend’s severed hand or something, tries to suppress her screams, fails, draws appropriate killer attention and the action continues.

If the producers kitted her out with a Blackberry whilst she was sat behind the sofa, the killer would immediately hear the click-click-click of the keys as she typed out her message of help. Or she’d have some shocking Motorola that makes an earthquake inducing tone with every key press (the kind that, unfortunately, many Americans still sport). That kind of Motorola would get our heroine discovered in no time at all.

If only she could text Rory, her equally heroic and artfully chiseled boyfriend whom we thought was killed off earlier but was, thankfully, only slightly damaged (he was paid $15m for the movie, obviously he won’t die in the first act) and is now 4 scenes behind, chasing to the rescue.

Well, if she had an iPhone, she could.

It’s perfect for texting when there’s a murderer nearby trying to discover you. That’s because it’s entirely quiet, provided you’ve put the sound off (and, er the vibrate).

I used my iPhone on and off across my sleepless night and didn’t wake up my other half at all. That wouldn’t have been possible with any other handset, I don’t think. I was just delighted with this feature. Tapping doesn’t cause any sound at all. Genius. I hadn’t really recognised this ‘feature’.

The only issue? The home button.

Since I’d become attuned to zero sound emission from the device whilst I worked away on it, I was a bit put out every time I had to swap application. The home button, you see, makes a slight click. Arse. Every time I pressed, I waited for a few seconds to see if she woke up. She’s never impressed if she’s awoken for no good reason. I certainly understand that a sick fiancee poncing about with a bright-screened iPhone for a half the night doesn’t quite qualify as a good reason.

I learned to gently depress the home key. It still makes a small click. But it’s not that bad.

Good, I imagine, for [boring] meetings as well, when the click-click-click of Blackberries can really draw attention to your deep lack of interest.

To all the iPhone users reading… now that my iPhone is unlocked and usable again, I’m hunting around for new iPhone applications and services to play with. What are your top three? Any suggestions?

Apple updated the iPhone firmware to v1.1.4 this morning via a new iTunes update. The iPhone SDK hasn’t been officially released yet, so we’re not quite sure exactly what this new update brings us, but stayed tuned, we’ll update you as soon as we know.

The Unofficial Apple Weblog has a play-by-play going on here. Obviously, if you’ve previously unlocked/jailbroken your iPhone, don’t do this update until you’ve got confirmation that it’s been jailbroken, as well.

On a more editorial note, does anyone else think it’s slightly odd/interesting that it’s referred to as being ‘jailbroken’? As if it’s being ‘freed’ when you perform the jailbreak? Fascinating.

Another thought, as it seems to be easier and easier for the dev crews to jailbreak the newer firmwares, do you think maybe Steve Jobs has his hooligans setting that up. Any other phone gets a firmware update, it’s slow news. The iPhone, however, hits the front page of most sites, and has the tech world wondering how long it’ll be until it’s jailbroken. Personally I think it’s a BRILLIANT way to keep the hackers entertained, techies attentive, and everyone else interested.

I caught this stimulating piece of analysis via StrategyEye this morning.

Apple may sell ‘only’ 7.9m iPhones this year, more than 20% below its target of 10m, warns Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, quoted in Barron’s. Sacconaghi’s estimates are based on sales of the iPhone for Dec, when Apple sold about 180,000 iPhones per week. They also take into account seasonal factors and “particularly disappointing” European sales, where the iPhone is available in France, Germany and the UK. Sacconaghi is not the only one to cast doubts over iPhone sales. Overall, analysts identify two challenges: a demand that has failed to meet expectations, and the problem of unlocked iPhones, which are preventing Apple to cash in from revenue-sharing deals with network providers.

I think it’s possible Apple might manage to convert the huge demand for the iPhone into reality. Whether they’ll make the 10 million target set my Mr Jobs….? Well, it’s possible now that it’s reasonably easy (think ‘one-click’) to unlock your iPhone. It’s still quite a steep price to pay for a lot of consumers though, particularly when they’re being courted by mobile operators handing out ‘free’ top of the range Nokias and Sony Ericssons.

I reckon Apple will, kicking and screaming, make the 10m target. There’s enough demand from people who will, eventually and ever-so-grudgingly, hand over the dosh for a device (with quite a lot unlocking them as soon as possible).

A colleague of mine recommended I check out ZiPhone. It’s a GUI for unlocking your iPhone.

Think simple. REALLY simple. You literally install ZiPhone, plug in your iPhone and press ‘unlock’. A few minutes later, your device is open. No arsing around. Very, very smart.

You can download ZiPhone for Mac or PC here. If you find it useful, do as I did, and knock them over a PayPal donation.

Good to see, via Engadget, that the iPhone had a bit-part in the Oscars this year. It’s hard to imagine a Motorola RAZR getting the same treatment.

It’ll definitely boost attention. The price is still far too wrong for mass market adoption. Not that this was ever Apple’s plan. I’m still a little depressed that they’re only chasing a very small part of the mobile marketplace.

It’s quite fascinating watching a possible global powerhouse move to a single digit bit-player across the year. Not long ago I was getting mails from mobile operators telling me just how much they were, frankly (and I quote), ’shitting themselves’ about the Apple iPhone launch. How the market has changed.

Now that we’re clear that Apple only ever intends being a bit player after the supremely underwhelming launches in various international territories, much of the mobile marketplace appears to be breathing a sigh of relief.

One insider at an international carrier told me last night on IM:

We can relax now… Apple helped bring some momentum into the market. We need to up our game with [for example] data plans, but it’s steady as she goes now… The iPhone panic is over.

The next big problem (or opportunity) for the carriers? Google. But it’s a while away, at least.

Apple’s 10 million-units-in-18-months target is a reasonable one. I, like most of the mobile operators, thought the iPhone would be snapped up by the iPod crowd. It would have been, if it was priced right — but of course, we weren’t thinking about Apple’s exclusive pricing strategy.

Here’s a quote I picked up from StrategyEye about the KPN CEO doing a virtual shrug over the iPhone.

KPN CEO, Ad Scheepbouwer, is keen to sell the iPhone in the Netherlands, despite reportedly claiming that the smartphone is “pretty useless.” Talking to the Financial Times, Scheepbouwer says he used to have an iPhone, but “the battery ran out in no time” and he “didn’t like the touch screen.” He also says that the iPhone’s launch in Germany on Nov 9 had not had any effect on KPN’s Germany unit, E-Plus. However, the CEO admits he would “be more than happy to sell it. We have half the market in the Netherlands and we hope we will be the party of choice.”

I have finally reoriented my view on the iPhone now…

Link: InfoWorld: Apple beats Microsoft, Motorola in Q4 phone sales

Even after being on the market for less than half a year, more iPhones sold in the fourth quarter than Windows Mobile phones in the U.S., according to research from Canalys.

Canalys researchers estimate that the iPhone had 28 percent of the U.S. converged-device market in the fourth quarter of 2007. Research In Motion, with 41 percent, had the largest share of the market. Windows Mobile phones had 21 percent share of devices sold in the quarter, falling into third place behind Apple.

Read more here.

This is something that I had personally guessed, but didn’t have any numbers to prove my theory. Thanks to IntoMobile.com and Canalysis.com, I now have the numbers to back up my theory that the iPhone hasn’t been ’stealing’ marketshare away from existing smartphone manufacturers, but has instead merely increased the size of the smartphone market overall, likely converting more featurephone users into smartphone users, as opposed to converting existing smartphone users.

When Steve Jobs said that the iPhone was killing in the smartphone market, fanboys the world over declared war on the other smartphone manufacturers, saying they’d better watch out. Not so fast, kiddies. The iPhone has garnered an impressive share for such a short product life thus far, but it’s not quite a threat in reality.

Take a gander at this chart from Canalysis.com showing smartphone device shipments and corresponding marketshare numbers for Q4 ‘06 and Q4 ‘07. You’ll notice that the entire smartphone market grew by 14.8 million units between the two quarters, a 72% increase. Of that increase, Apple snagged 16%, whereas RIM also managed 15%, and Nokia claimed a whopping 52% increase quarter over quarter.

Apple is most certainly doing well with the iPhone, and 16% of the smartphone market increase is definitely something to be proud of, but it’s no more growth than the incumbents saw for the same time period, proving that the entire market is growing quickly, not just Apple’s share. Apple is going to have to bring more than just firmware updates and storage increases in 2008 to maintain that level of growth and really create a firm foundation.

Bored of waiting for Apple to launch the iPhone on the network you like? You and a great big wodge of US iPhone users. According to an analyst quoted by Reuters, one quarter of iPhone owners are using their Apple mobiles on networks that aren’t AT&T’s.

If that’s the case, then it’s Apple that should be worried, rather than AT&T (the carrier said last week it had achieved the highest number of quarterly subscriber adds of any US carrier ever after all.) Apple gets a share of data revenues for each AT&T user signed up on an iPhone contract, so for every one that’s off the grid, the company’s bottom line takes a hit - up to $500 million according to Reuters.

It just shows the pulling power of the iPhone - after all, that’s one in four iPhone owners that are risking ending up with a brick the next time Apple updates the device’s firmware.

After the O2 ‘we didn’t sell as many iPhones as people expected but we’re still happy about it’ shenanigans, it’s now T-Mobile’s turn to sing a distinctly similar tune. Rene Obermann has been doing the talking, and revealing the German operator has now shifted 70,000 of the devices since launchIt’s not a number that’s gone down well with the number crunchers though, with Hannes Wittig, a JP Morgan Chase analyst telling Bloomberg: “The number is lower than what I expected” and predicting that T-Mo should have said goodbye to 150,000 iPhones. Ouch. It’s not all bad news for Rene, though - apparently iPhone owners spend three times more on data than the average subscriber. A sign of how to increase data consumption or an indication of people who left the email app on when they were on holiday?

Link: Report: iPhones piling up at AT&T stores | One More Thing - CNET News.com

Is demand for the iPhone in America already starting to wane?

AT&T, the exclusive American carrier of the iPhone, activated just 900,000 iPhones during the fourth quarter, the company revealed during its earnings conference call Thursday. It wrapped up the year with “just at or slightly under 2 million iPhone customers,” according to company executives.

It’s absolutely fascinating watching this industry from the sidelines. On one hand, we’ve got CNET reporting that it looks like iPhone sales are on the slide with ’significant amounts of inventory in channel’.

On the other hand, you’ve got the man-on-the-street. I’ll point to the personal trainer, Kevin, as an example. I’ve hired him to help me get in better shape over the past few weeks whilst I’ve been in San Francisco. He loves the iPhone — he’s a real fan, but he just.can’t.justify the expense. I think he’s right. I asked him to take me through his justification points and as I jogged along listening and firing questions, I recognised the unfortunate yet sad reality of Apple’s current position.

Why sad? Well, Kevin is a Mac guy. He’s an Apple consumer — precisely the mainstream target audience that Mr Jobs was no doubt imagining when he chalked up his public ‘10 million iPhones’ target at MacWorld last year. Kevin’s got a PC, but he prefers using his Powerbook. He’s considering upgrading to Leopard. He’s pretty savvy with the internet — and he’s not that content with his current handset. Kevin is grade-A Apple fodder. He’s already converted.

But for the price and service delivery.

He’s not impressed that the device isn’t 3G. He’s done his research. He’s not an impulsive geek-arse like me. Kevin sat back, looked at the iPhone offering — liked the device — but found the ‘deal’ wanting. 2G (or 2.5g depending on your viewpoint) device, 3G AT&T network = not smart. He’s concerned about buying an iPhone *now* on a stupidly long contract only to find that Apple releases a 3G version soon after.

And when he sits back and evaluates the pricing plan… it just doesn’t quite work. He’s totally content to pay premium. But not THAT premium. Not geek premium. If he could buy one for $400, and ONLY $400, he would — but not with the endless and highly priced contract service plan that isn’t very competitive to what he’s got at the moment and what he’s comfortable with.

I think that’s it, then, with the iPhone.

The SDK will come along and it’ll be good news. We’ll see a plethora of wicked applications launched, I’m sure, provided Apple don’t screw it up.

However I think that’s it. A new strategy is required.

The geeks have all bought one and many have got theirs unlocked. The Nike wearing Soho crowd have splurged the cash. The wannabes and the I-must-have-that crowd have weighed in, swapped networks and got their devices. But that’s it. There’s a ton of people all sitting staring at the iPhone and — SADLY — (this is the bit that’s winding me up), turning their backs and walking away. I could name you 20 people, right now, that I know personally, who WOULD have an iPhone if they were marketed at a more reasonable price — 100 pounds maximum — and were unlocked to work on any network. But those 20 people won’t. They’re staying exactly where they are, back in the old world. Or, actually, back in the real world.

Nokia, Samsung, LG, Sony and HTC (and, er, the Google offering) are safe. The iPhone, on the current trajectory, will only ever be a number 4 or number 5 device.

It’s back to business as usual. Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief. 2007 was a challenging year for the manufacturers and operators faced with the uncertain Apple issue. With China Mobile flatly saying ‘no thanks’ to the iPhone (and no wonder, given what Apple were reportedly demanding), the future is clear. The manufacturers got a kick up the arse and I’m delighted to see the revolution underway. All of a sudden, devices are sexy again and there’s real innovation going on. Just look at Motorola, forced to innovate, it’s bringing out some really good handsets. Whether you’re a fan or not (and historically, I’ve been unimpressed with the continual rebranding of the RAZR, KRZR and so on), they are innovating and pushing things forward. Excellent.

I think we saw a measurable shift in the United Kingdom due to the iPhone. The worst fears of mass migrations that I reported back in the last quarter haven’t fully come to pass. Two different operators I spoke to reckoned they stood to lose ‘hundreds of thousands’ of customers. I’m sure there’s been a dent. Bearable though. Totally bearable, especially when the vast majority of your subscriber base has no doubt weighed, measured and found the iPhone offering wanting.

The impact of the iPhone has been seismic. But continuing along the current strategy will simply reduce the influence to a mild echo in a few years.

You’re in serious, serious trouble when your biggest fans — the (perhaps stupid?) legion of millions who buy Apple computers and associated products — decide NOT to buy the iPhone. Part of the whole iPhone buzz was based upon laptop logic. That is, if you’ve got an Apple laptop, you’ll definitely get an iPhone, no question. Then your friends who’re all currently PC based will notice the iPhone and naturally want one themselves — and simply go and buy an iPhone.

Well it’s not that simple. You can simply-buy-an-Apple-laptop. There’s no continual contract, there’s no lock-in, there’s no monthly fee structure. You just plonk $699 for the MacBook and you’re a certified Apple convert. No-can-do with an iPhone.

Or, if you’d like an even simpler example of how screwed Apple’s current iPhone strategy is, think iPod, for a moment. Think about the MILLIONS of people who’ve bought iPods. The iPhone is a natural upgrade path, particularly if you’re even half interested in your mobile handset. Now, some people obviously enjoy the iPod or the iPod Touch on it’s own and that’s fine, that’s one particular segement. Logic (along with anecdotal and, I think, pretty reliable personal experience) dictates that a whopping amount of customers would upgrade to a similarly priced iPhone. But haven’t.

How depressing.

Been into an Apple store of late? Go in, next time you’re passing — and watch. Watch for the tens or hundreds of people (at the weekends in busy shopping centres) crowding around the iPhone stall. They’re all peering. They’re all enjoying. They’re all oohing and ahhing and pressing buttons.

They’re not buying.

But they would.

They would buy. It’s traditional Apple pricing — at say 400 dollars or 269 UK pounds — a status price point. It’s a point that affords status to anyone who buys it — but is (as is proven by the millions of iPod sales) well within the gift and credit-card-impulse-purchase-budget of the masses.

The masses are having none of it. Once you’ve sold to the ultra geeks and the fashionistas, who else is left? By all means, 500,000 sales in every international territory wouldn’t be bad. It’s no small amount of recurring revenue. You need to get it into every territory though and the operators aren’t, by any means, playing ball. You can see just how bad it is when o2’s having to reassure it’s shareholders with stupid press releases to dumb Financial Times journalists.

The report highlighted that ‘60 per cent of the company’s iPhone customers in the UK were sending or receiving more than 25 megabytes of data a month’ and continued:

By comparison, less than 2 per cent of O2’s other UK customers on monthly payment contracts use more than 25MB a month.

First of all, the iPhone comes with unlimited data so you’d expect most users to give it a go since it’s not costing them a whopping 3 or 4 quid per meg of data. Which, coincidentally, is what the great unwashed — the normal ‘other UK customers’ have to pay for their data. So duh.

This kind of stupid reporting, together with the constant rumours I keep hearing and reading about iPhones gathering dust in warehouses and o2 stores across the land in the UK, doesn’t bode well.

Is that saturation point for the iPhone then? They’ll continue to convert a small percentage of “Ok, ok then, I’ll pay,” consumers — but the vast majority, my trainer Kevin included, are going to sit on the sidelines and carry on playing with their Nokias, Samsungs, LGs, Sonys, Motorolas and their own network of choice.

The market dynamics are in flux. There’s a big change in the air. We’ve all seen Mary Poppins, right? You know how she comes and goes at key points during the story, ‘when the wind changes’, well… the wind’s changed already and it’s time for a change. That is, if the iPhone is intended to be ubiquitous.

If the intention is to do-a-MacBook (bite off a small chunk of a huge, huge industry) then no problem. Steady as she goes. Perhaps that’s been the plan all along? Just to participate, just to have a seat at the table?

I myself was hoping for a revolution. I was hoping to see the iPhone garner 20, 30 or 40% market share of the handset marketplace. That would make development of applications so much easier, particularly with an SDK as powerful and as easily accessible as the reported one due out shortly — which, in turn, would significantly boost the worldwide mobile industry and really, really require the incumbent players to take off their gloves and get stuck in.

I’ve made that change in my mind now. I think it’s time we all did (if you haven’t already and kudos to you if you saw it coming a mile away) — the iPhone will, on current strategy, only ever be a bit player. It’ll always be a gorgeous, brilliantly conceived device. Phenomenal.

But, thanks for coming, Apple. Thanks very much for that.

Next!

I’ve had an enquiry from SMS Text News reader Pete who’s loving his o2 iPhone. He’s wondering if anyone else has managed to forward missed calls (and only missed calls) to another number.

You can easily do this with your average handset, however he’s only able to forward ALL calls…or none at all. It seems to be a binary choice for him. Because he regularly works in an area with zero o2 signal, he’d like to be able to get his missed calls forwarded to another (Vodafone) handset when they’re missed. So when he’s got an o2 signal, he wants to be able to answer his phone normally rather than have to arse around swapping the full divert on and off.

Any thoughts?

Link: MacNN | AT&T adds iPhone to enterprise plans

For international travel, customers have the option of two Data Global Add-On plans: $25 allows 20MB of use before overage, while $60 grants 50MB. In each case, the package only covers 29 countries, including Canada, China, Germany and the United Kingdom.

I’m assuming, I think, rightly, that this means $60 for 50mb of data per month. That is reasonable. More at AT&T’s site.

Like many this evening, I anxiously rushed in to watch the Apple keynote wondering what iPhone excitement might be announced and was delighted to see the 1.1.3 firmware that had been leaked last week was real, finished and released. My joy wasn’t long lived though as the upgrade succeeded and then failed… all because I have the SIM lock enabled on my iPhone (just relying on the phone lock to protect me cost me well over £100 in calls when I lost my last phone and the thief swapped my SIM into their handset).

A few ‘OKs’, iPhone clicks and re-starts later all is well and I’m busy playing with the new features (my girlfriend is not impressed my iPhone can tell me we’re at home, she could so that without a phone she points out), but this is not the slickness you usually get from Mr Jobs et al…

No news today.

Nothing big. No 3g, no new iPhone Nanos or anything like that… I haven’t taken a close look at the software but from the description, it all sounds cool. Not earth shattering.

Here’s a quote from the live coverage of Jobs’ keynote via Macrumours (it’s in reverse order by timestamp):

9:33 am iPhone has added chapter options and language capability in iPod mode
9:31 am Webclips (website bookmarks on your home screen) will remember where you zoomed/panned to. You can create up to 9 of them.
9:27 am Note: the features appear largely consistent with what was previously leaked
9:26 am Demoing now
9:26 am Lyrics
9:26 am Maps with location, Webclips, Customize home screen, SMS multiple people
9:24 am We want to give folks something for today. New software.
9:23 am people are excited about the SDK that we will release in February
9:23 am First quarter shipping, iPhone has got 19.5% of U.S. SmartPhone market (2nd behind RIM)
9:21 am 20,000 iPhones per day average

Link: China Mobile, Apple End Talks on IPhone - washingtonpost.com

Talks between China Mobile Ltd. and Apple Inc. over the launch of iPhone handsets in China have been called off, officials at the Chinese company said Monday.

“We can only say that negotiations have ended for now. We have no other news to report,” said Li Honghui, a spokeswoman for China Mobile Communications Corp., the parent of cell phone carrier China Mobile. She declined to comment further

What can they be disagreeing on? Perhaps they’re not that impressed with the international performance of the iPhone around the world…

The official said China Mobile was unwilling to accept Apple’s request for a 20 percent to 30 percent share of China Mobile’s user fees from future iPhone users, according to the report.

Or then again, maybe that’s a pretty good explanation…

(Picture via pressdisplay).

Well I never. I really thought Apple’s iPhone would have done a lot better. The figures aren’t out yet but if this piece if anything to go by, the non-iPhone mobile operators don’t seem to have much to worry about. The big up front cost together with the steep 18-month contract seem to be - at least anecdotally - preventing the massive uptake predicted by many (including me).

Perhaps this news story I published on the launch UK weekend is a good indication of realities:
UK iPhone launch: 18 staff and 3 customers in Winchester (Carphone Warehouse)

The Mail on Sunday is reporting that…

APPLE has banned UK retailers of its heavily hyped iPhone from reporting sales figures amid evidence that British consumers have shunned the device.

In a Christmas season that saw sales of mobile phones soar by number but crash by value, the £269 unit disappointed. But the California-based designer of the phone has told network O2 and retailer Carphone Warehouse not to tell investors the figures, according to industry insiders.